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Saturday, November 10, 2018
Ambient 23° Track 38° Humidity 74%
Wind 2.6 m/s
Prelude
Heat shimmered off the asphalt in the
Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace, in Sao Paolo, Brasil, as track temps were
nearing 50C° as the start of qualifying for the Brasilian Grand Prix
drew near whilst off in the distance, coming ever closer, massive
banks of dark clouds roiled, threatening yet again to upend all the
hard work of the teams over the last 2 days. This was, in some ways,
the perfect metaphor for qualifying after a torrid stretch for
alternatively Ferrari and then Mercedes, the world was regaining a
familiar shape as the results from FP3 had Vettel slightly ahead of
Hamilton and Red Bull once again looking like it might be split by a
HAAS driver, but with many questions looming....
Hamilton's car had a mechanical problem
at the start of his first run, which was repaired in reasonable time
but still cost him his originally planned running and left him
occasionally belching smoke from his exhaust in an alarming fashion,
but apparently not a serious thing judging by the mien of his
engineers, at least after he made it round the track the first time
without a terminal failure.
Raikkonen and Bottas were locked in
their own private battle, as it turns out there is just 9 points
between them for sole possession of 3rd place in the WDC, with
Raikkonen ahead at the moment. In the Formula B battle with a 12
point lead Hulkenberg looked fairly tight for best of the rest, but
K-Mag was just 4 off Perez for P8, and Alonso just a further 3 points
back. Given the stochastic nature of the midfield the last 2 races
will be nail biters for the teams and drivers involved as sponsors
for the coming seasons will no doubt be wooed vigorously with the
results a rather large carrot.....
Both Ricciardo (turbo) and Ocon
(gearbox) were nailed with 5 spot dingers for bolting on replacement
parts, Ricciardo's the result of his non-finish in Mexico, the
vigorous application of the fire extinguisher, well, extinguishing
his chances (forgive me)...
Sector times show a significant
Mercedes advantage in S2, which is the twisty one, whilst Ferrari
dominate S1 and S3. It's possible that Merc are starting to lose the
rears a bit by the end of the lap in the higher temperatures, and
worth noting, despite Toto Wolff's denials, that Mercedes AGAIN
choose not to run their new trick rims with the cooling (or aero,
depending on your loyalties) holes in them, and again, without them,
are behind the Scuderia, in the dry, natch.... Of course, the real
impact will show up more in the race than over the course of a single
lap, but should Mercedes struggle again, well, correlation and
causation etc., but the data is piling up very rapidly that without
them, Mercedes looks far more vulnerable than with them...
Summary
Green Light!! With the clouds ever
closer, there was a queue at the end of pitlane as the track opened,
the track temps had dropped to the mid 30's and contra usual
procedures, with rain in the offing both Ferrari and Mercedes were
amongst the hoi polloi. Bonnington told Hamilton on the radio rain
was expected and it was Bottas first off on his hotlap with everyone
on the Supers. Hamilton was purpling the sectors behind him, and
behind him it was Raikkonen even faster, until he made a mistake in
the final corner. Nevertheless, he was still a wee bit faster than
the Mercedes, but it was Verstappen who had the first properly good
lap, with a 1:08.205. Leclerc had a remarkable outing, going P6 just
0.3 seconds slower than Ricciardo and it was Vandoorne, Sirotkin, and
Stroll on the outside, looking in as the Toro Rossos were yet to set
a time.
Gasly P15 and Hartley P17 and with 10
minutes left to go, it was Bottas who was furthest off, as he was
blocked going into the final turn on his fast lap and drops were
reported on the outside of turn 12, and it was turn on the lights
dark over the backside of the track. On the Supers, 2nd efforts were
not making much of a difference, even as fuel was being burned off.
8 minutes to go and the track was still
alive with activity, Perez up to 10th as the usual interlude was
simply not going to happen thanks to the weather. Grosjean to P8 with
his run and then it was Sirotkin, ahead of Ocon for the moment and up
to 13th. Leclerc nudged ahead of Grosjean and Hulkenberg was up to
P11 as the names were bouncing up and down the board with alarming
rapidity.
Ocon was on it, big lockup into T10 but
still managing P14 and putting Alonso out with 5 minutes left and the
weather worsening according to Hulkenberg who reported heavier rain
over the back of the circuit, on turns 4 and 12. Gasly was on the
radio and his call was "it's raining, it's raining,"
followed by a long bleep, the sound of someone who's left it a bit
too late in P17. Still, it was P12 at the end of the day, and there
was time still to be found.
Under 2 minutes and it was now Sainz in
P17, with it all to do, while Alonso on the radio amusingly asked to
be told when people started going off. P16 for Sainz and that was the
end of that, as he lacked the resource to put in another full push
lap. Stroll improved massively from P20 to P19 (yes, I couldn't
resist), making Vandoorne the lanterne rouge.
Sainz, Hartley, Alonso, Stroll and
Vandoorne were done for the day off in search of some Pao de Queijo
whilst the rest turned it around for Q2. Notable for other reasons,
Kmag pulled off a P5, ahead of both Ricciardo and Bottas, with
Leclerc ahead of Grosjean in P8 and Renault looking not particularly
competitive at this circuit.
IT was again a mad rush for the pit
exit at the start of Q2, with the rain there or thereabouts, and
Leclerc ready to be first off, Trailed by Ericsson, Kmag and Grosjean
and Hulkenberg. Supers for all, the imminent rain putting the kibosh
on the plans for Ferrari and Mercedes to try and sneak through on the
Softs to Q3. 4 minutes to rain, one and done then for the shot at the
ultimate glory of Q3. Raikkonen was in, along with Vettel and Ferrari
was quick to pull the strategy switch, and both Ferrari's were in for
the Soft tyre. Meanwhile, it was Ericsson fastest of the first bunch,
with the top teams pounding towards the line. Bottas, Hamilton,
Verstappen, then, in that order as Ferrari were dragging around on
their outlaps on the Softs, rain increasing every second. Bang, off
went Raikkonen, and the rains held off, up to P4 as Red Bull was
into the pits and copying the strategy of Ferrari. Vettel, on the
Softs, up to P2 as the Softs seemed to be working better on the cool
track.
8 minutes to go and Hamilton just about
took out Sirotkin, moving directly in front of him as the Williams
headed for the final turns and the start of a push lap. Verstappen
just missed improving on his Super soft time and Ricciardo, too was
unable to best his banker, meaning only Ferrari would have the
advantage on starting on the Softs. Kmag managed to improve with 7
minutes left, up to P10 and then it looked as if the track conditions
crossed, with no one able to improve as the track got greasier and
greasier.
4 minutes to go and Leclerc, Perez,
Ocon, Hulkenberg and Sirotkin looked done, off for caipirinhas early,
with the track done for the session even with time left. Mercedes,
too, had a go on the Softs, but the track was too slippery and even
prior to ruining Sirotkin's lap, Hamilton was slithering about
demonstrating how badly the track had degraded.
But wait, 1:20 to go and there were
again cars out on track, hoping against hope that there might be some
time to be found, as the track had been spared an utter shellacking,
and indeed there was, with Leclerc up to P8 and putting Kmag out!!!
Big oversight from HAAS to not be on track as Gasly, too, was rocking
a personal best in S1. Indeed, of the 4 that were on track, Ocon,
Gasly, Hulkenberg and Leclerc, the up and coming Ferrari driver was
the only one to improve his time. Good move by the Sauber driver
then and off to drown his woes with the others then was Kmag, and
perhaps Gunther Steiner as well, as Leclerc joined the Q3 party....
The infinite wait for the opening of
the pitlane in changing circumstances always tests the patience of
even the best of teams, and the anxiety was writ large across the
faces of all the team personnel. Wow, and then, Vettel in front of
the stewards for an amazing incident at the weighbridge during Q2. As
he rolled into the pitlane to switch onto the Soft tyres, he got
called to the weighbridge. First, he knocked over a cone, which took
the FIA stewards who cleared it at least 10 seconds to retrieve.
Then, as he mounted the scales, according to Jo Bauer, the technical
delegate, he failed to turn off the engine which meant it took longer
to get a result. Finally, after he rolled back off the scales, he put
it in gear and picked up a bit of wheelspin as he headed off,
destroying the rear set of scales. The FIA stewards were a bit cross
about this...
Leclerc, again was first off, followed
by Ericsson, and still not wet enough for the intermediate tyres.
They were trailed by pretty much the entire rest of the field, but it
was a respectable 1:08.432 for Ericsson as it was Vettel lighting the
board purple as the big boys were fully underway. Behind Vettel,
Bottas reset the fastest time for S1 as Raikkonen was first to the
top. Vettel cracked that time, with a 1:07.301 and only Hamilton was
able to outdo him, by a mere 0.073 seconds.
Mercedes led the way for the final go,
with Vettel at the back of the pack, Bottas first to go, followed by
Verstappen, Hamilton and Ricciardo, who were desperate to space
themselves out. Raikkonen was quickest on the second go round and
then Vettel went even faster in S1. Hamilton shaved another tenth off
across the line and then it was slippery S2, undoing their efforts,
dooming Vettel to P2, the gap jumping to 0.093 as T8 was his undoing.
As it stood, Bottas and Raikkonen then Verstappen and Ricciardo for
the sharp end, then Ericsson, Leclerc, Grosjean and Gasly. Nice
exclamation for Ericsson, who is moving onto IndyCar next season,
starting P6 once Ricciardo's penalty gets appliedbut with all the
hard work to come in the race tomorrow.
With both Vettel and Hamilton under
investigation, perhaps Raikkonen or Bottas were in with a shout. With
Hamilton's adventure on Sirotkin's outlap, which it's not being a
push lap might augur in his favour, should he be found at fault, it
would likely be a 3 spot for him. For Vettel, the stakes were
decidely higher, if he was found guilty then he could face being
disqualified from the qualifying session, starting him at the back of
the pack....
The hearing was set for 30 minutes after the end of
qualifying, so it'll be a state of uncertainty for this report. Still
100th pole for Mercedes, despite the sloppiness and without rain
tomorrow, and assuming that Vettel and Lewis both don't get punted
off the front of the grid, it will be a fascinating race of alternate
tyre strategies at the sharp end. Similarly, Formula B will see a
very fast K-Mag on Soft tyres starting P10 thanks to Ricciardo's
penalty, chasing the Super clad quartet ahead of him. But it was
Marcus Ericsson who was the real winner, outpointing his star quality
teammate and starting on the 3rd row of the grid as the end of his
tenure as a Sauber driver unreels.
Discuss!!
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